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NHLX Prospects & RATINGS

 

One of the things I have the most interest in and spend the most time on updating in NHLX are real-life young prospects. The more emphasis put on developing real, high-level prospects in the database, the farther the window of "real" feeling simulation extends in the game itself. I'm not a scout by any means but I'm a paying subscriber to multiple scouting and evaluation services including NeutralZone, Puck Preps, Eliteprospects and Evolving Hockey. I am also a constant lurker on HFBoards - not only the main forums but all the team sub-forums, the prospect forum and different junior league and national forums. I've even got all-Russian language forums bookmarked for discussion on very young Russian youth names to watch. I update frequently, most weeks on a daily basis, to massage NHL team depth charts and prospects and future NHL draft prospects to try and stay as relevant and accurate as possible.

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  • My approach to young players in NHLX may differ a bit from that of other databases in that I don't always adhere to "league rating rules" for top prospects. In fact, I try to create youth players who will be more NHL ready at the time of drafting and more ready to make an immediate impact than perhaps a regulated system of ratings would warrant. I do this A) because it is fune to be able to draft real-life phenoms to a rebuilding team and watch them change the fortunes and excitement of running a franchise and B) EHM tends to phase out older guys from prime rules too slowly - so this is a counterweight to some degree.

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  • I also take great pains to make sure NHL team prospect rankings and NHL draft class rankings are inline with both the scouting sources I trust the most and with an ear to in-season development and changes that fans of each franchise may have more intimate knowledge of than a purely statistical evaluation can pick up on. 

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  • I tend to use 'defined' potential abilities for top young prospects in the database (ie, a rating...say 180 or 165 or 150) as opposed to a potential ability rating (ie, -8 gives a random PA of 130-160, -9 of 150-180, etc). This let's me get pretty granular with shaping top prospect lists very closely to real life. That's not to say I don't use the random PA's - but my preference is to constantly update the player PA for top prospects with database releases based on real life performance rather than to let the game get too random.

    • For example, a good prospect may traditionally have a PA of -8 in the database. That means the game can assign him a PA upon start of anything in that range and it will vary from game to game. But I see this prospect, currently, as a surefire second-line type NHL player who is a unequivocal top 5 prospect for his team. So I'll give him a PA of 155 instead of -8. ​That means every time you start a game, he'll be ranked at that level. It doesn't mean he will develop to that level though. And if his real life development stalls or becomes inconsistent - I may lower that PA or change him back to a -8 or -18 or some other random range. It just gives me more control rather than letting the randomness of the game take charge.​​

    • As another example - a certain draft class may have a very defined top 3 who I give defined PA's to of 175, 170 and 170 (just as a random example) - this helps the simulated draft in the game really stick pretty close to real life. Or there might be a draft with a guy who is considered to be generational who I give a PA of 190 to. We know there are no guarantees in reality - so as we get closer to this phenom's draft year, I may start to drop that PA - but for now, even if he is young - he's considered a "the next one" and I want the game to reflect this - not some random version of him.

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  • Of course as prospects in real life get to draft age and get drafted and development, we learn more about what kind of player they are and I will start to hone in one their play style and some of their attributes. Obviously I don't want a guy who is considered a fast-skating, finesse-based sniper to have the attribute development of a net-front power forward. But for young prospects - my goal is not to be nitpicky on how the game assigns every single attribute - but rather to simulate the 'essence' of the player, as far as we know.

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  • You'll see some unique things in the database like very young American prospects who are 14 or 15 already assigned to the USNTDP (and loaned out the first year) so I can keep that program (which the EHM sim engine does a terrible job with) as stocked as possible for as long as possible. You'll see some far-off college recruits already assigned. And you'll see real life phenoms as young as 13 and 14 built-into the database to become stars of far off, future NHL drafts.

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The bottom line with EHM is that even with all this work - the game still does silly things. You assistants may give you wonky depth charts or draft suggestions. The draft may play out with some ridiculous surprises even with lots of pre-determined potential abilities baked in. A guy with a PA of 140 may become a 50 goal scorer and a guy with a PA of 170 may struggle to be an NHL regular. Nothing is guaranteed in the game...but I sure like to help it as much as I can! 

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Prospects & Ratings

SCREENSHOTS

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The screenshots below are as of January, 2022 and the initial NHLX release. I may update them from time-to-time because like most things prospects-related - a lot of it may not age that great. And the game will always play out differently every time.

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Screenshots

 

A snapshot of the NHL Hall of Fame circa 2053 in a test-sim...a lot of real life young prospects who eventually make it big!

 

Here's how the NHL rookie class of 21-22 is faring in this test sim...your results will vary! Keep in mind 36 teams now offers better opportunities for rookies to make an impact!

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The 2022 NHL Draft is shaping up like this...at least according to this particular test sim!

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The 2023 crop looks loaded. This is definitely a good year to suck. Michkov and Bedard is a toss up most test sims...although the team who picks Michkov has to be patient with his KHL contract!

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Even the 2024 Draft runs deep with real prospects from around the globe from the 2006 birth year...

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And an selection of real phenoms for even later drafts that grows with ever release of the database. Here are just a few of the real life names to watch out for!

Click on any screenshot to enlarge.

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